Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 35.841977 38.734365 41.908962 45.683153 50.090295 55.128602 61.406463
2025-08-31 31.545240 35.253810 39.581807 45.104852 52.121145 60.974785 73.425429
2025-09-07 29.681491 33.911611 39.056688 45.959904 55.301366 68.062785 88.023485
2025-09-14 27.758440 32.207093 37.779072 45.535463 56.552384 72.602491 100.158489
2025-09-21 25.963203 30.457703 36.207797 44.433703 56.559300 75.158213 109.739815
2025-09-28 24.466316 28.957369 34.802970 43.356940 56.370632 77.259890 119.108283
2025-10-05 24.145519 28.952469 35.371423 45.092668 60.631298 87.499404 148.918661
2025-10-12 23.598744 28.591004 35.395757 45.996606 63.669070 96.335691 181.438300
2025-10-19 23.014406 28.130219 35.227851 46.563105 66.193866 104.857695 220.430305
2025-10-26 22.371366 27.543224 34.824516 46.699168 67.953685 112.290768 264.441307
2025-11-02 21.562801 26.677276 33.949394 45.980354 68.016990 115.941166 299.516878
2025-11-09 20.723874 25.728706 32.895642 44.876400 67.196358 117.288791 327.154551
2025-11-16 19.981694 24.915180 32.043074 44.116043 67.102155 120.873344 376.950122
2025-11-23 19.328676 24.204857 31.312645 43.511631 67.259812 125.298048 446.525624
2025-11-30 19.060573 24.039200 31.403830 44.327696 70.468138 139.587554 668.383946
2025-12-07 18.540254 23.476544 30.839549 43.926268 70.996586 146.124939 882.791072
2025-12-14 17.918464 22.738922 29.962119 42.891307 69.974624 147.269510 1044.202822
2025-12-21 17.339371 22.045794 29.126175 41.878027 68.887483 147.929659 1237.755879
2025-12-28 17.343076 22.226542 29.697309 43.510713 74.217961 175.061131 5685.970809
2026-01-04 17.185265 22.153234 29.847965 44.359841 77.854681 199.047149 NaN
2026-01-11 16.974769 21.989237 29.837518 44.891606 80.802677 223.153305 NaN
2026-01-18 16.702605 21.718786 29.633770 45.019281 82.707130 244.251874 NaN
2026-01-25 16.304934 21.239425 29.055349 44.344583 82.277745 251.399297 NaN